The death of software, the A24 of software
Steven Sinofsky recently published Death of Software. Nah., arguing via historical case studies that AI will not kill software any more than previous technological shifts killed their respective incumbents. I agree with the headline thesis. But I think his media analogy deserves a sharper look, because it actually complicates his optimism in ways worth taking seriously.
He writes that there is "vastly more media today than there was 25 years ago," pointing to streaming as evidence that disruption creates abundance rather than destruction. This is telling, because I agree with both sides of the glass:
- There will be more software, not less, in the future.
- The quality of that software — as defined by the heuristics of yesteryear — will be lower.
The shift to streaming has not killed media. But it has, to put it mildly, made the aggregate quality of the product worse, and in doing so shifted the value generated away from creative labor and towards platforms and capital. Warner Bros. is, to hear some people say it, the last great conventional studio producing consistently risky and high-quality work that advances the medium forward; Netflix, Apple, et al do put out some extremely great stuff, but the vast majority of their budget goes to things like Red Notice — films designed with their audiences' revealed preferences (i.e., browsing their phone while the film is on) in mind.
And yet! The greatest studio of the past decade was also a studio founded in, essentially, the past decade — A24, in 2012. I think it's uncontroversial to say that no other studio has had a higher batting average, and they've done it the right way: very pro-auteur, very fiscally disciplined, focusing more on an overall portfolio brand and strong relationships than the need for Yet Another Tentpole Franchise.
A24 didn't succeed despite the streaming era — they succeeded because of it. The explosion of mediocre content created a vacuum for taste, for curation, for a brand that stood for something. When everything is abundant and most of it is forgettable, the scarce thing is discernment.
The interesting question isn't "will there be more software?" — it's who captures the value, and what excellence looks like in a world of abundance.
(Kicker: A24 just took a round of additional funding from Thrive Capital last year. The market, it seems, agrees.)