I have no qualm or reservation with the general concept of "superforecasters", and find myself predisposed to agree with the author's screeds against 'experts' in the media and pleas to treat prediction with the same level of scientific rigor that has advanced other disciplines. But the abrupt whiplash from "it is important to ground our understanding of the world in repeatable, falsifiable observations and experiments" into "also, you should really check out Thinking Fast and Slow, this System I and System II thinking stuff is really important and interesting" (a notion that was disputed in 2015, completely unreplicatable in 2024, and should be considered obviously suspect to most people) made me realize too late what this book was, which was a Gladwellian pop psychology opus: an airport book that admires other airport books, filled with the same low-grade smarm that permeates The Signal and the Noise (also a book that I detest despite being written by someone whom I generally find smart and admirable!)


Lightning bolt
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